Illuminating what matters
Strategic consulting has a structural problem: the incentives are wrong. Consultants are paid to deliver findings that clients will accept, not findings that are true. The result is analysis that confirms what leadership already believes, frameworks applied without understanding, and recommendations designed to be defensible rather than accurate.
Internal strategy teams face a different version of the same problem. They exist within hierarchies that filter information. They're subject to political dynamics that make certain conclusions unspeakable. They optimize for career safety, not intellectual honesty.
The uncomfortable truths—the ones that make or break your business—get filtered out before they reach decision-makers.
Phaneros is an AI-powered strategic analysis engine built on Bayesian reasoning frameworks. It surfaces what traditional methods miss: the structural weaknesses in business models, the hidden assumptions leaders are making, the competitive dynamics that pitch decks hide.
It delivers analysis that consultants can't or won't—not because it's designed to be contrarian, but because it's designed for accuracy, not acceptability.
Phaneros operationalizes the frameworks I've developed over a decade of venture evaluation and strategic advisory work—the same frameworks that underpin my book, Fatal Abstraction.
The core principle is Bayesian reasoning: start with explicit hypotheses, test them against available evidence, and update beliefs based on what you find. This sounds simple, but it's the opposite of how most organizations actually make decisions.
Most strategic analysis works backward from conclusions. Phaneros works forward from questions.
Executives facing strategic ambiguity — When the old playbook has stopped working and you need clarity on what's actually happening.
Investors evaluating ventures — Analysis that surfaces what pitch decks obscure and founders won't say.
Boards seeking strategic clarity — Independent analysis that isn't filtered through management's preferred narrative.
PE portfolio teams — Diagnostics for portfolio companies that identify real value creation levers.
Phaneros is currently in beta. We're looking for design partners—investors and executives who want early access in exchange for feedback that shapes the product. If that's you, let's talk.
Become a design partner