About

Show your priors. Hypothesize, test, and update.

Michael Nichols

The Short Version

I spent a decade inside corporate strategy and innovation at Robert Bosch and Mann+Hummel, coaching hundreds of ventures through validation. I've seen what actually drives success and what's theater.

Most strategic advice is designed to be politically acceptable, not accurate. Consultants tell clients what they want to hear. Frameworks get applied without understanding. Metrics measure activity, not truth. The result is organizations that optimize for internal politics until reality strikes.

I got tired of watching it happen. So I wrote a book about why strategy fails and built a tool to fix it.

The Philosophy

The title of my book—Fatal Abstraction—captures the core problem. Organizations abstract away from reality. They manage to metrics that don't reflect what's actually happening on the ground. They build strategies on assumptions they've never tested. They filter information until only comfortable news reaches decision-makers.

This isn't a case of bad intentions; it's structure. Hierarchies filter. Incentives distort. Humans prefer certainty to ambiguity. The result is predictable: strategies that look rigorous but aren't grounded in tested causal models.

The alternative is Bayesian reasoning: starting with "I don't know," forming hypotheses, testing them against reality, and updating beliefs based on evidence. This is how good investors think. It's how effective founders operate. It's the opposite of how most corporate strategy functions work.

The Background

Mann+Hummel (2022–2025) — Vice President, Corporate Strategy & M&A. Led global strategy, corporate development, and a $30M+ venture portfolio for a €4.5B filtration company. Redesigned innovation governance. Served on boards of internal ventures.

Robert Bosch (2014–2022) — Director, Business Model Innovation. Led the Global Accelerator Program: 400+ ventures, 1,000+ participants, 20 countries. Freed $250M+ through disciplined invalidation. Program won Best Corporate Accelerator Europe (2021), featured in Harvard Business Review, Osterwalder's The Invincible Company, and a Berkeley Haas case study. Co-created the Bosch Innovation Framework. Commercialized internal consulting, generating $1M+ from Siemens as first external client.

Education — MBA, University of Florida. MA in Russian Studies, Middlebury College. BA in Russian and Eastern European Studies, University of Oklahoma. NSEP Scholar (study abroad, Russia).

Languages — Native English. German (C2). Russian (C2). Reading proficiency in French, Spanish, Latin, Ancient Greek. HSK3 Mandarin.

Current Focus

Fatal Abstraction — My book on strategy and innovation for the age of AI, forthcoming from Emerald Group in 2026. It provides the philosophical foundation and practical tools for leaders navigating uncertainty.

Phaneros — An AI-powered strategic analysis platform that operationalizes the frameworks in the book. It surfaces insights that traditional methods miss—the uncomfortable truths that consultants filter out.

Advisory — Occasional work with investors and boards facing high-stakes decisions.

Let's talk.

I'm selective about engagements—I work with people who want the truth, not validation. If that's you, I'd welcome a conversation.

Get in touch